No matter what happens with the Seahawks this year, whether they struggle and miss the playoffs, or become a surprising contender, one aspect about this team will be certain to happen. Seahawk fans will be divided when it comes to Geno Smith.

Seattle could take an improbable path to the Super Bowl, and there will probably be certain fans who will be “thanks, Geno!.. time to draft a quarterback.”

Seattle could also struggle playing through a tough division, and end up with a losing record. If that happens, there will most certainly be load cries to see what we have in Sam Howell, and cut bait with Geno.

But on the flip side, this fanbase also has loads of people who are staunchly in Geno Smith’s corner. They believe that not only is he rightly the QB1 for now, but should be looked to be the future, as well.

Curiously, from the observations I have made online, podcasts I follow, some national takes that I see, the people who tend to be very pro Geno Smith seem to be the ones who demonstrate knowing ball pretty well. These people are mainly the analytics crowd of the fanbase, and the league, and football film junkies who break down plays and coverages.

These people are comfy with Geno about to turn 34 years old, and have a “so what” attitude about having an older quarterback who took an unorthodox path to becoming QB1 here in the PNW. They study the tape, look at his numbers compared to other quarterbacks spread across the league, and they are confident in their projections that Geno’s got some good years left out of him.

I get it. Positive numbers are alluring.

As of right now, Geno projects to have a pretty good QBR rating, on the whole, over the last two year span, even if there were up and down trends with his game. Analytics also support that he is one of the best quarterbacks when making plays under pressure, one of the best play action passers in the league, and he is one of the best deep ball passing quarterbacks, as well.

At the start of the season last year, the anti Geno crowd used the argument that he hadn’t proven that he could win games in the fourth quarter, but then he went on to prove to be one of the best fourth quarter quarterbacks in the league last season. In fact, the more games he plays in, the more the anti Geno crowd is running out of excuses as to why he shouldn’t be the starter here much longer. The best that they can muster up is that he is older and therefore, cannot be expected to be the future.

Because of these numbers, and what my own eye test has sorta told me about Geno, and the support he has gotten from sharp football minds I respect like Brian Nemhauser of Hawkblogger, Mina Kimes, the Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar, Cigar Thoughts thinker Jacson Bevens, and others, I land pretty firmly on the Pro Geno Smith side of the argument. I get it that his story is unusual, he’s older, and at some point, Seattle needs to draft and develop a young quarterback. I also believe that the way league rules protect quarterbacks these days, it has become more common for quarterbacks to play longer and still find success.

That said, even in the most stubborn pro Geno position I could take, I still see certain writings on the wall for him in Seattle that make me believe that his future with this team is a murky one, at best. I am not blind to the tea leaves that I read.

Let’s look at this team’s roster financials.

Over The Cap, an online source that calculates and tracks roster spending, projects Seattle to be $19 million over their salary cap at the start of the 2025. No matter what this team does in 2024, make the playoffs, or not make them, they will need to cut some talented players, and/or restructure contracts to get their finances right next Spring in order to sign back key free agents, dip into free agency, and also have enough money to sign their rookie class. This is the grim financial future waiting for this team after the season.

Popular players who could be at risk to be cut or dealt could include Tyler Lockett, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Dre’Mont Jones, and Noah Fant. Of all the players who could open up the most money if cut or traded would be Geno Smith.

Hypothetically, if Seattle moved off of him for Sam Howell (and possibly a rookie, or cheap vet), Seattle would free up $25 million and be effectively under their cap. If they also moved off of Tyler Lockett, they would free up an additional $17 million. For sake of argument, let’s say they cut lose Dre Jones, and that frees up over $11 million.

These three actions would net them roughly $34 million in effective cap space to sign back center Connor Williams and maybe starting linebackers Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker. After these signings, they would have probably enough cap to sign a player or two in free agency on minimum deals and then sign there draft class.

This is the cold honest truth about Seattle’s roster structure in terms of its salary cap. As much as it might seem that Geno is the guy, it kinda feels like this roster has been under construction for a QB on a rookie contract to eventually take over, at least in terms of salary cap management. If you went onto the Over The Cap website, and looked at this team’s financial outlooks for 2025 and 2026, you would immediately get this vibe.

In my mind, I imagine Seattle would probably love to find a talented young quarterback playing on a cheap rookie contract. That player just hasn’t landed to them yet, and right now, they possess a talented older quarterback who is essentially playing for his future to remain here in Seattle this year.

It is certainly very possible that Geno Smith catches fire this season, guides Seattle back into the playoffs, makes the pro bowl for a third straight year, ingratiates himself with Ryan Grubb and Mike Macdonald, and they work out an extension in the following offseason. With an extension, they can convert money into the form of a signing bonus, drop is 2025 salary number significantly down, cut a few other expensive veterans, and maybe restructure a couple other contracts.

With each restructure, though, that is financially kicking money down the line, inflating future salary caps, and making it financially more difficult to sign back good players coming off of their cheap rookie contracts. You can be the biggest pro Geno person out there, and still recognize this particular salary cap quandary.

So, if this teams elects to pay Geno Smith $50 million APY, you most certainly not see Tyler Lockett staying here, and the team would also have to part ways with other talented vets. After the 2025 season, the team would also be hard pressed to keep together all of Boye Mafe, Riq Woolen, Ken Walker, Abe Lucas, and Charles Cross. After 2026, they will have a chore figuring out ways to keep Jaxon Smith Ngijba, Devon Witherspoon, Derek Hall, and Zach Charbonnet. Tough decisions would be inevitable.

I am not arguing against paying Geno Smith the value he would be worth, if he has truly ascended into top tier quarterback status, but I am showing you what it means to pay someone who will be well into his mid thirties this kind of money down the road. Seattle is building a talented young core, and it would be hard to keep them together for a quarterback who may only be a three to five year plan, at best, beyond 2024.

This is why I believe we have never seen this team fully embrace Geno Smith as their franchise quarterback this year. I think they are being very purposefully pulled back from doing that, and there are numerous examples.

Go down and have a walk around their stadium. Geno Smith is this team’s highest paid player, and yet he does not have his own individual mural picture on the outside of the stadium like other key players have. What does that tell you?

That tells me that he is playing this season for his own future on this team.

After all, it was just around five months ago that John Schneider was asked whether Geno is their starting quarterback, and he answered “he is until isn’t.”

That lack of endorsement set off alarm bells with Geno fans, and people got pissed. Schneider got asked a very pointed question, and yet he elected to be candid instead of sugar coating it.

Frankly, it didn’t really bother me much. After all, he didn’t know if they would be able to draft a guy like Michael Penix Junior, or not, and Schneider wouldn’t have had any idea how this new coaching staff would ultimately take to Geno. It sort of struck me as maybe something he wanted to say to prep people for potential quarterback move around the corner.

Let us remember that when Schneider came to town with Pete Carroll in 2010, the Seahawks had Matt Hasselbeck, arguably the best quarterback in franchise history at the time, on it’s roster, and they traded for Charlie Whitehurst to develop behind him much like they trade for Howell this year.

After seeing Hasselbeck play well enough to guide this team into the playoffs, and win a playoff against the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints, Pete Carroll and John Schneider said “thank you and goodbye” to Hass that following offseason. It’s safe to assume that Pete and John were looking for something different at quarterback. Eventually, they landed on Russell Wilson.

So, saying Geno is the starter until he isn’t shouldn’t really be that shocking, if you look at this team’s history. It should simply be a vivid tea leaf to read.

The organization might really like Geno Smith a lot, and appreciate who and what he is for this team right now, but they ultimately might be building this roster up for eventually a young gun to step in, just like I mentioned above. This feels real enough for me.

It makes sense, given the players that they have extended, and the players that they are looking to extend in a few short years, to have a cheap solution at quarterback for the length of a rookie contract. This is probably their ideal scenario.

But many times in life, ideal scenarios don’t always present themselves. Good teams do not reach on quarterbacks in the draft just to take one. They stay true to their draft boards.

Therefore, I don’t think we see John Schneider next Spring draft a quarterback in round one just for the sake of it in order to prepare for life without Geno. After all, in 2023, he had two opportunities in the first round to draft Will Levis and passed both times. Anyone watching Tennessee last Sunday can see that Levis is still very much a work in progress player.

So, here is ultimately where I sorta land in all of this Geno debate in Seattle. I really like Geno Smith a lot. I like what he is as a player, and I dig who I think he is as a person. If he plays well in 2024, like I think he is fully capable of playing, I wouldn’t be upset at all if this team worked out an extension with him for a few more years. I would actually be excited about it.

Therefore, as of right now, I still believe that this is a likely enough of a scenario. As this season wears on, I can see Geno Smith clicking in this new offense with Ryan Grubb’s play calling, and further winning over this new coaching staff.

Would I be shocked if it didn’t happened and they turned to Sam Howell in 2025 with potentially a rookie competing with him?

No, I would not be shocked. Geno could play well, and just like with Hasselbeck years ago, they could still elect to move on. This could most certainly happen.

But I still think that Geno stands a strong chance to endear himself to his new coaches with good enough play, and leadership to where they are going to want to keep rolling with him. It’s just an unshakable vibe I get. It makes me reluctant to bet against him staying in Seattle.

Those who know Grubb pretty well have noted that he prefers a very specific personality at quarterback. He wants an alpha personality who will command a huddle, make smart decisions, and possess the ability to accurately push the ball downfield. Geno Smith is all of this right now. That is why they never intended to open up competition between him and Howell.

I will say another thing about Geno and Sam Howell. If Howell was quarterbacking in the final minutes against the Broncos and attempting that crucial third down pass to the tightly covered Tyler Lockett, I don’t think he makes that throw. I don’t think he even attempts that throw.

All throughout training camp, Geno demonstrated vast superiority of accuracy with the football over Sam Howell. It wasn’t close. Do not underestimate how much that means to Ryan Grubb when he is calling plays.

Therefore, I think that if Seattle does make the playoffs this year, and Geno plays well, he and the team will likely find middle ground on an extension. He will probably have his coaches (and teammates) pushing for this. Maybe it’s only a short two year extension, or three at the most, but extending a quality Geno Smith a few more years gives this team the luxury of staying competitive until they find a player in the draft that they believe will be the franchise. There is tons of value in this.

I think this is the solid middle ground for the player and the organization. Give him some more money and a couple extra years, and keep your options open for drafting a quarterback that you really like.

I would not be so quick to assume that Geno will want Dak Prescott dollars, either. If he does, than this whole situation becomes a very different discussion, but I suspect that he will want to be compensated better than he is now, and with probably a little more in guaranteed money tossed into the deal. At the same time, however, I believe he will recognize that giving the team a friendlier contract deal than other quarterbacks probably assures that the team will better fit talent around him.

Maybe I am wrong about this. I could be, but I wouldn’t, at this point, bet against it. Things are presently murky, but one really good season out of Geno Smith this year can clear a lot of that up.

John Schneider likely genuinely appreciates Geno, but he also knows all too well that finding a bright young quarterback to play on a rookie contract is a golden ticket for any franchise in this league. Any good general manager in his position, of having a decent QB1 entering his mid thirties with a new coaching staff, would be thinking the same exact thing. At some point, you have got to get younger, if you can.

But at the same time, I think John likes to operate by having a strong working relationship with his coaches, and he takes in their input. If they bang the table loudly for Geno, I don’t see him ignoring that.

This is why I am not at all stressing this truth between Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. Having a good quarterback now, and an eye for another one in the future is exactly how this team should be operating. This is how they have set themselves up to operate, I believe.

This is the very last thing I will land on with Geno Smith the quarterback. This dude has been through a lot of shit as a professional football player, and against many odds, he stayed with it, and overcame what most others in his position have not been able to do. Don’t think for a second that he looking at this trial year, and doesn’t have the inner fortitude stay strong against any adversity and doubt.

You can be put off by his age, and his path to being QB1 in Seattle. If you are under the age of thirty, you probably only really know quarterback success in Seattle coming from some dude who won a Super Bowl game managing on a cheap rookie contract. That’s fine.

But I think only a fool underestimates how much the players on this team love him, how strongly he commands the huddle, and how determined he is to prove all the hating fuckos out there wrong all over again.

Go Hawks