As I have said it recently before, I’m not much into predictions these days for the Seattle Seahawks. For example, I no long preview games and predict outcomes. There’s other better writers out there that love to do that.

For me? That routine started to feel like a chore, and I hate chores!

That’s said, nothing prevents me from making a bold take when I see a good one. Right now, I gotta bold take on these 2023 Seattle Seahawks that I feel right good about, and am happy to share.

They are going to have a good defense this year. Yup. Bank on that.

Will it be elite? I don’t know, but through two games, they are top tennis the league at stopping the run, and that is at least something.

Last year, they were the worst run stopping defense I have seen in Seattle in well over twenty years. It hurt my soul watching that run defense. Make no mistake about it, being able to stop the run for the last two games is a good, positive baby step.

Now, I get it. A lot of naysayers will point out that these Seahawk defenders have been terrible against the pass in these same first couple games, and in each game, they gave up 31 points each. I won’t deny that. Those are horrible numbers, but you know what?

Chicken butt.

I think the pass defense is going to change in a big positive way, and I think it’s going to happen soon. Last week at Detroit, Seattle faced one of the better offenses in the league, they went against a quarterback who has had a lot of success against them, and they gave up a number of passes against more contested coverage than the week before.

What does this mean? It means that Seattle showed signs to tightening their cover three defense that they appear to be returning towards. I think they just need to few more games to gel with it, add more press with the corners, and sort through their best looks.

Let us remember that there are still a lot of new faces on this defense trying to build chemistry with each other. Chemistry with the Legion Of Boom did not happen over night. When Richard Sherman took over the left cornerback spot, he had to figure out how Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas played. When Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril came to town, they had to figure out on the fly how to pass rush with each other.

As that legendary defense formed, there were days where they hemorrhaged huge yards through the air. Russell Wilson had to try and win shootouts against Andrew Luck, and Matthew Stafford. In 2013, the year that led them to a Super Bowl win, the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs came into Seattle and put up huge yards and a bunch of points.

As Cliff Avril points out in the teams wonderful docs-series Season Of Boom, the core of Pete Carroll’s defense is “bend don’t break.” Carroll wants you to abandon the run and throw it. He wants to feature a defensive line for which the inside gaps are easily defended by big men, and he is willing to give up short gains through the air.

Ideally, this should lead to defenders developing natural instincts to where the ball will go, and then makes plays on them. In time, it allows them to play faster, and more decisive. That’s how Kam, Earl, Richard, and Brandon Browner eventually played together. They would concede certain amounts of yards, but as the field shrunk towards the red zone, the back of the end zone becomes an extra defender. That was the area of the field where a lot of their bigger plays would happen. A lot of turnovers were created down there, sacks would happen, and teams would often settle for field goals.

I think Pete Carroll is happy to give up yards if it means settling for field goals. To him, I think having a good scoring defense means more than how many yards of offense his defense gives up. In other words, if the defense gives up well over 300 yards through the air, but holds an offense to under 20 points, Carroll considers that really good defense.

The key to that whole philosophy is entirely dependent on the ability to stop the run. Through two games, Seattle is showing a good ability to do that. Last year at this time, they did not.

So, what’s the difference?

I kinda think, to some degree, Carroll is returning back to his old scheme up front again, at least enough to where he knows certain tenets of his core philosophy are followed, and namely the ones to which the A and B gaps of the interior portion of the line of scrimmage are always defended.

Truth be told, I don’t think Seattle is really operating much out of a 3-4 scheme like defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt was trying to run last year. Last week, against the Lions, Seattle ran the 3-4 less than twenty percent of the time.

Don’t get too caught up in the positional labeling that Seattle has on their team page with their roster, either. Guys who are listed as linebackers are playing a lot of defensive end through these games, and guys are listed as ends are playing a lot of three technique defensive tackle.

I think Seattle is heading back towards the 5-2 in their base defense, and then 4-2-5 nickel on what they anticipate to be passing downs. They want to have enough bodies around the line of scrimmage to discourage the run, and encourage the pass. This is a contrast to the weirdly anti Pete Carroll stuff they did in bunches last year that screamed “run at us in third and long, and you will get a first down” against teams like Tampa, the Saints, Raiders, and Panthers (all annoying losses in 2022).

I think a return to more 5-2 is a return to a defense that Carroll knows best.

During the LOB days, Seattle listed players on their roster like they were operating as a 4-3, but the bird’s eye look of this defense was always a 5-2 look in it’s base. Bruce Irvin was listed as a linebacker, but played at the line of scrimmage like a stand up defensive end. Red Bryant was listed as a defensive end, but he played like an extra defensive tackle. Carroll’s defenses were always hybrids, and I think they are returning to this hybrid philosophy. This is encouraging.

A big key moving forward now is for the back end to sync up. Highly drafted rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon gave us a positive glimpse last Sunday in Detroit that it could be on it’s way soon.

I thought the rookie played a really positive game being thrown into the fire against the Lions. His instincts and technique showed up well against the run, and his tackling was good with 5 credited stops. He also had a key 4th down pass defense.

Sure, he got burned badly on a flea flicker, but I think he got caught getting sucked into trying to do someone else’s job against the run then doing his assignment, and I think he’s going to learn form that quickly. Spoon is a smart instinctual cookie. There is a reason why this team wanted to draft him at five overall last Spring.

On the other side, Riq Woolen has scored strongly through two games with the Pro Football Focus gang. He is tailor made for Seattle to return to its cover three stuff.

In the back end, I sense that the safeties are working to figure each other out more. Julian Love is coming into the situation here from the Giants where he did a lot of two deep safety stuff. He is holding the fort at strong safety for Jamal Adams, and is adjusting to a new scheme of playing more in the box, and building chemistry with Quandre Diggs.

Julian Love is a good football player, and is going to figure it out. When Adams gets back, it will be interesting to see what Seattle does with these two in their nickel looks. Will the presence of Love allow for Adams to play the weak side linebacker role, or will Love be Seattle’s best option at nickel corner?

Hmmmmmm..

Now, I circle back to Devon Witherspoon. I think the key to the whole tasty taco is right here.

Much was made during training camp about Seattle trying Spoon at nickel. There was some concern that he wasn’t showing enough to be the left outside corner. I suspect that the plan always was for him to be the outside guy opposite of Woolen in the base defense, but I also think that Carroll and crew began to envision his potential of sliding into the slot like Jalen Ramsey did so well with the Rams for a few years.

Watching Tre Brown step in for Woolen was huge against the Lions last Sunday. Not only was he graded Seattle’s best performing defender by PFF, he might have just showed his coaches that he showed be the outside guy opposite of Woolen in the nickel defense. If this is the case, the guy who could really be in store for a big breakout year in 2023 is this Brown.

Seattle’s most ideal nickel look might feature Adams at linebacker next to Bobby Wagner or Jordyn Brooks, Diggs and Love at safety, Woolen and Brown outside, and Spoon at the inside nickel position. I think this could be the package that is most assured to both stop the run, but also provide top playmaking abilities against the pass, and provide the best blitz options.

Where are quarterbacks most likely to go on third down if Spoon shows well as the nickel? Nope, won’t likely be towards Woolen (they are showing that already). Maybe not towards the rookie so much as the season wears on.

Maybe the passer looks to a tight end covered by a linebacker. Maybe to Brown who just got a pick 6 against Jared Goff who hadn’t thrown an INT in what has felt like forever. Defenders will anticipate that more and be more ready in their drops.

I am saying it now, if Spoon is able to move inside and hold down that nickel spot, and Brown is able to get onto the field opposite of Woolen, and Adams plays more linebacker, I think the 4-2-5 is probably going to be Seattle’s strongest look on defense. I think this is what they are building towards.

The final piece of the whole enchilada is for the pass rush to come together. Make no mistake, through two games thus far, it’s been bad.

Seattle needs their pass rushers to build chemistry together. I kinda have a lot of faith that it is coming.

Guys like Uchenna Nwuso, Boye Mafe, Jarran Reed, Dre’Mont Jones, Mario Edwards are already making plays in the backfield against the run. They just need to feel each other as pass rushers. Darrell Taylor is going to be a guy to factor as a rusher, as well.

It may not come together like we all want it to this week against Carolina. Jarran Reed as been sitting out of practice with a sore groin, and if he’s not going to play, the Panthers might feel inclined to really test the run defense. I think Seattle has players who can still hold up inside like rookie Cameron Young, and reserve defensive tackle Myles Adams, but neither guy is Reed right now.

The two players who probably need to most figure each other out on the DL are probably Jones and Nwuso. I think Seattle is envisioning them as their new Bennett-Avril combo. I suspect Seattle will want to see how they move together with stunts, but really, they just want these two younger established vets to work together knowing how each one rushes.

Bennett and Avril communicated with each other a lot during the 2013 campaign in order to figure out their best rush plans. This took time. It was about a month or so into the season before dividends started paying off.

I think we could see a similar chemistry about to brew with Jones and Nwosu, along with others factoring in. Edwards has an ability to rush inside. Reed is a good inside pass rusher. Adams has shown potential. I think the team wants Cameron Young to develop as a rusher inside. Boye Mafe, I feel is on the verge of being a really good edge rusher. Darrell Taylor is already a good edge rusher. Derick Hall is a rookie trying to figure out his rush plans, but I think he’s got too much natural talents to not come on as the season wears along.

Seattle has a lot of decent pieces. I will even go as far to say that I think they have the potential to be a lot better of a collective than what people want to give them credit for right now.

So, yeah. I’m going to say it. I think the Seahawks are going to be good on defense this year.

This isn’t just something that I am writing about to wish it into existence, either. This is carefully reasoned stuff I am scribing. Simply put, Seattle has too much talent in their secondary to not be good, and I think they have just enough up front. It is going to come together this year.

I think they are going to be good on defense, and I think they are going to continue being really good on offense with Geno Smith and company. That should equal double digit wins this year, and another run at the playoffs.

Will it be good enough to overtake the 49ers?

Like I said, I’m not into making predictions, but I think they have put out their documents-series The Season Of Boom beyond the reason of this year being the tenth anniversary of the Super Bowl win over the Broncos. I think it has been put together to inspire these players and the fans in the stands.

Yeah. I think good things are about to happen. You heard it here. You will soon see.

Go Hawks.