Michael Penix Junior was destined to go top ten in this draft. This is something I have felt very strongly about for a number of months. All of this baloney talk of him being a second or third round pick was complete nonsense being peddled for months by high profile “draft experts” who probably didn’t sit down and watch very many Washington Husky games over the past two years.
Instead, they viewed his injury history at Indiana, and his average-ish frame, and his less than stellar championship game against Michigan, and they penciled in a bunch of lazy narratives. If Penix had been quarterbacking for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan last season, hitting beautiful deep shots off of play action in a ground and pound offense, supported by the best defense in America, guiding them to the championship win, he would have been a top three pick in this draft. Instead, he was taken eighth overall to Atlanta in a move that surprised many, and that did not surprise me in the slightest.
I wanted Seattle to draft him. I wanted it badly, and a couple weeks ago, I wrote an article where Seattle traded up to take him. I felt that the only way for him to be a Seahawk would be a trade up. I was spot on correct with that, too. There are now reports floating around out that Seattle was, indeed, making an effort to move up for him, after all. Apparently, so was Vegas and New Orleans.
I’m not going to go into rehashing all my reasons for why I believed Penix to Seattle made perfect sense in my mind. I have written about it to an exhausting point, and have argued my position to folks on the internet, and friends, and family, and anyone else pushing against it. It turns out that the league pretty much agreed with my views on him. So, I have that feather in my cap. Go Falcons.
I also suggested in my last mock draft article that Bo Nix might be a candidate for Seattle after a trade back while at the same time suggesting that he could easily go to Denver at twelve overall, and he did just that. Bo Nix has his critics, but I am not one of them. In Denver, I think Sean Payton is going to do a lot of good things with him, and while many are calling that pick a reach, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a better career than a few of the younger quarterbacks taken in front of him. Time will tell.
Enough of the quarterbacks, though, and onto the real exciting news. Because of the absurd amount of quarterbacks (six of them), offensive tackles, and receivers taken in the first fourteen picks of the draft, the Seattle Seahawks landed a guy who many believe was the best overall defensive player in the draft in one Byron Murphy, Defensive Tackle, out of Texas.
Make no mistake about this. That was a MAJOR steal for the Seahawks. In any other draft, this is a player who would most likely have gone top ten (I thought Atlanta or Chicago would be the spots for him). According to general manager John Schneider, Seattle had four really good trade offers on the table that they turned down to pick Murphy. I can believe that.
At 21 years of age, Byron Murphy has already earned his degree at Texas, so we can imagine that he is a hard working dude. At 6-1 and 300 pounds with an impressive athletic profile, he is also twitched up dude who was a tackle for loss demon in college last year. You can line him up at three technique, 4i, and nose tackle, and he possesses the strength, athleticism, and skills to bugger up an offensive line.
He is as well built as they come for defensive tackle, too. He’s not the doughy pile of fun loving goo that Poona Ford and Brandon Mebane were, but more of the Greek god chiseled-ness of Aaron Donald. That is as far as I will go to compare him to Donald (a once in a generation DT), but his physical profile is impressive like that.
For years, Seattle fans have been pining for this team to acquire a talent such as this to add to their defensive line, and he just fell into their lap. Every Seahawk fan should be excited about this addition, and what a superb way to usher in the Mike Macdonald era.
It’s fine to want to see the Seahawks draft a promising young quarterback who will play for a number of years on a cheap rookie contract, and we can all see that Seattle needs to add more to their offensive line at guard. I would argue, however, that the opportunity to draft a rare game wrecking style defensive tackle trumps taking a great guard prospect, and with no viable QB that you would take after the crazy run of them, this move became an instant no brainer.
It is really, really hard to find defensive tackles who can do what Murphy projects to do at this level. He plays was such great leverage, and explosive power, and translatable skill. He will grow as a pass rusher, but he should have an impact year one making Seattle’s defensive line a problem for opponents. I loved Troy Fautanu as much as the next person as an option for Seattle, but I’m sorry, I’m going Murphy a hundred out of a hundred times with both players on my board. I am so elated that Seattle did not over think this pick.
Mike Macdonald was brought into Seattle to replace Pete Carroll mainly for one reason and one reason only. To build a defense that would wreck Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay offenses. That is why he got this gig. John Schneider just gave him a major tool to do just that.
One could easily argue that the offense for Seattle is really not that far along from being one of the better ones in the league. They need to add more to the offensive line, but they are loaded with weapons, and they have a capable veteran quarterback, and a young guy with some upside behind him, already. When we step back and look at the fuller picture, we can easily see what this team desperately needs most is to get its defense’s ass kicked into high gear.
Byron Murphy is a compact high gear defensive lineman. That is the best way to describe him. Paired with Leonard Big Cat Williams, mixing in with Jarran Reed and Dre’Mont Jones, he going to bring this defensive front a lot of juice. Even if he doesn’t initially collect gobs of sacks, he will make other jobs easier. Boye Mafe’s job is going to be easier, and it wouldn’t shock me if he gets near to 15 sacks this year with Murphy shooting through gabs inside on long third downs.
It is going to be fascinating to see how this defense will morph under Macdonald now with this acquisition. I did not expect him to be available. As I write these thoughts out now, I’m still frankly stunned.
And Seattle still has six picks left in this draft to add a decent young guard prospect. I feel like in round three and early round four, there’s likely still going to be some decent options available. Players like TCU’s Brandon Coleman, Pitt’s Matt Goncalves, Michigan’s Zak Zinter, and South Dakota State’s Mason McCormick could be options available when Seattle picks again, and I’m excited to find out. As a fun thought, maybe UW right tackle Roger Rosengarten falls into their lap at pick 81, and they move Abe Lucas inside to better protect his knee.
But at this rate, however, I would say the draft is working out perfectly for Seattle right now. They got the game wrecker, and a guy who many did not expect to be there at 16. Round one of this draft came to them perfectly.
I also appreciate the rumors that they were preparing to move up for Penix, they need to find a long term solution at quarterback, and who knows, maybe they target Spencer Rattler today, but good teams let the draft process come to them. If Rattler is there at pick 81 and they want to take him, great on them, but if not, I hope they keep an open mind on whoever else might be available there when they pick next today. No need to reach for a need if there is a great prospect sitting that who plays a different position.
So far so good with Bryon Murphy, though. As my father used to say, you cannot have enough quality defensive lineman. He would have loved this pick.
I have no idea what the Seahawks are going to do this draft, but gosh darn it all, if I am ever excited to find out. New coach, possibly a new mindset on the type of players he’s going to want, and the first draft to usher in this new area. I’m stoked for all of this, but I’m just not going to put myself through the agony of predicting anything.
My gut tells me that it is more likely that they trade back then stay put at pick 16 (or trade up). This is a deep draft at offensive line, quarterback, and receiver. There’s some good looking defensive tackles and edge rushers set to go round one, as well, and some interesting corners. These are all players at premium positions, and one of them could be a Seattle Seahawk this Thursday. Whether Seattle stays put, or trades back, or shocks everyone by trading up, they are poised to get a very good football player.
In this final mock draft article, I am going with my gut, and am projecting a trade back. I think there is going to be a run of quarterbacks and receivers early that are going to push some really good players down the boards, and there is going to be a championship contending team who is going to be will to make a deal with John Schneider that he is going to like.
For Schlitz and giggles I am going to say that our trade partner is the Green Bay Packers who Schneider has a healthy relationship with. A prized cornerback becomes available where Seattle is picking, and while Seattle is in no great need for this corner, the Packers do. They send picks 25 and 58 to Seattle, and Schneider gets his wish to trade back, collecting a valuable second round pick.
Beyond this trade, I am projecting the Seahawks to be purposeful in selecting guys who they believe are going to fit the scheme, and culture of their new coaching staff. Mike Macdonald feels like a straight shooting no nonsense fella. I think he’s going to want players who will embody that vibe, who he will count on to play hard for him, and will take to harder coaching.
Here is my final mock draft demonstrating the spirit of this.
With the 25th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Bo Nix, Quarterback, Oregon
Seattle sees a talented quarterback who they believe has the skills, personality, and maturity to mesh beautifully with their new head coach Mike Macdonald. Seattle sees five quarterbacks go in front of them inside the top fifteen, and keep fingers crossed that Nix might be available after the trade back. He is, and they take him.
With the 58th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select T’Vondre Sweat, Defensive Tackle, Texas
This pick comes with controversy similar the Frank Clark selection in 2015, as Sweat has recently been busted for a DUI. Where Bo Nix’s persona is all about high character, Sweat is regarded as a partier who doesn’t keep his weight in check. However, at 6-4 and 366 pounds, few humans can do what he does in a football uniform. He’s a true space eater who can soak up blockers, and he can collapse the middle of an offensive line. He will have Jarran Reed, Leonard Williams, and Johnathan Hankins to show him the ropes of being a professional. Further thoughts about him later in this piece.
With the 81st pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Brandon Coleman, Guard, TCU
Coleman was a three year starter at left tackle in college and was a team captain. He projects as a guard in the NFL, and has the traits to be a good pass blocking one. Seattle can put him behind Laken Tomlinson and allow him to develop and they have an offensive line coach in Scott Huff known for converting tackles to guard while coaching in college. Coleman is an explosive athlete with underrated upside, and can play tackle if needed.
With the 102nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Jeremiah Trotter Junior, Linebacker, Clemson
Though undersized and maybe not a top athlete, Trotter has NFL genes, he’s smart, instinctive, plays with discipline, and has proven effective both as a blitzer and in coverage. This is important to Macdonald.
With the 118th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Javon Solomon, Edge Rusher, Troy
Like Trotter, Solomon comes in undersized, but plays fast, instinctive, and was very productive. He plays with good leverage that makes him hard to block against the run, and he’s bendy around the corners with good use of hands as a rusher. He can also effectively drop in space. I like this guy for Macdonald’s defense.
With the 179th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Kamren Kinchens, Safety, Miami
At one point last season, Kitchens was projected to be a top safety prospect, but unspectacular testing results at the combine are likely going to hurt his draft stock. Some team is going to get a really good safety later on in the draft with him, though. Here, Seattle does.
With the 192nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Beaux Limmer, Center/Guard, Arkansas
Limmer is experienced at guard and center in college, and he displays good technique. He’s also a decent athlete. For some reason, he’s projected to be a later round pick, and if this proves true, he’d be a great pickup here as a quality depth player. Seattle swoops in.
With the 235th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Luke McCaffery, Wide Receiver, Rice
This is a fun pick with McCaffery’s big brother Christian playing for the San Francisco 49ers, but it also makes sense, if he’s still around late in the draft. He has natural hands, and can run a decent route. He is new to the position, though, as a former quarterback converted to receiver, but if he is sitting there late, definitely worth taking a flyer on.
Thoughts about this final mock draft for the Seahawks
I don’t know if any of these guys end up Seattle Seahawks, but each of them feels like Seahawks in terms of what I sense this team wants moving forward. I think they are searching for high character guys. I think they want leaders, and guys who will fight hard, and will bring an extra gear of juice to games. This is how their last two drafts have gone, and I think they lean further into it in this coming one.
Why do I have Seattle selecting Bo Nix in the first round, you ask?
Well, if you were to set aside your Husky bias for a moment, I think I can explain it. Here are my own thoughts on him.
NFL draft pundits are all over the map with him. Some say he won’t make it past Denver’s pick at 12, while others say he’s a guy who teams will try to target in the second round. For what it is worth, the same thing has been said about Michael Penix Junior, so Nix isn’t alone in bipolar projections (although Penix is gaining a lot of last minute buzz about being a top 15 pick).
When I look a Bo Nix, I just think there is a strong chance he is both a John Schneider guy and a Mike Macdonald fella. He’s well built at 6-2 and 214 pounds, and he’s a capable scrambler who throws very well on the run. On top of being football smart, and accurate with the football, he’s also regarded as an exceptionally strong leader. The people down in Eugene rave about the positive impact he brought to their culture and locker room. He’s extremely experienced in college, and as a coach’s son, he’s all football.
Like Penix, he possesses big hands, and for John Schneider, I think that is a big deal. While he doesn’t have the arm canon of Penix, he grips the ball well, pump fakes well in cold wet weather, and get the ball out quickly and accurately while setting up defenders. In boxing terms, he boxes smart (at least this is what it has looked like in all the games I have watched from him).
He can also throw a pretty deep ball, and I don’t believe that gets talked about enough in the media because of all the short easier completions he was asked to do at Oregon. He’s also proven to be very durable in college, and that is going to be a positive checkmark for a lot of coaches.
I stand firm in my belief of Bo Nix. I have watched just as many Oregon Duck games as I have watched Husky games. I have good vibes on him and Penix. I think their floors are really good, and while Penix might have the much hirer ceiling with his superior arm talent, I don’t think Nix is exactly a popgun armed quarterback who is going to be a check down Charlie at the next level. I think he can be a good starter in this league for a long time, if he gets into the right situation. I think Seattle would be that right situation for him.
I also think Nix could really be an ideal Mike Macdonald kind of guy. I can see potentially a great personality fit, and in many ways, I think it makes sense for Seattle to take the plunge now at drafting a quarterback to partner with the new head coach moving forward, if the right guy is there, even though they might have greater immediate needs on the team.
Enough on the quarterback, though, and onto perhaps the more controversial projection in this mock draft. Bo Nix taken in round one will surely raise a few Husky eyebrows, but the next guy I have projected in this mock to Seattle might induce some actual rage with fans and media members.
T’Vondre Sweat, with his recent DUI, and his chill attitude about his playing weight, would instantly draw criticism from some of the talking heads in the Seattle sports media scene. I have seen this movie a few times over.
Seattle has shown a track record taking risks on potentially impactful defensive linemen with character red flags. Bruce Irvin, Frank Clark, and Malik MacDowell all had issues either with the law (Irvin and Clark) or motivation (MacDowell). Irvin and Clark had successful stays in Seattle, but MacDowell did an extremely knuckleheaded thing on an ATV that all but destroyed his football year before it got going. Each of those selections drew sharp criticism in the local media, and I would expect no different if Seattle drafted Sweat.
Why then do I think Seattle could still do this, even with the history of the MacDowell situation?
Here are a few remarks that NFL analyst Lance Zierlien has noted about him on his profile on NFL.com’s webpage.
Tall, wide, and extremely powerful
Devours blocks, allowing linebackers to operate in space
Has the ability to crater the pocket if the center doesn’t help to block him
At 6-4 and 366 pounds, Sweat is unusually gifted as a nose tackle who cannot be single blocked, and has enough athleticism for his gigantic size to factor as an inside pass rusher. If Mike Macdonald really does love his linebackers as much as he has professed to adore them, getting a huge dude like Sweat in front of them to soak up blockers and gum up the middle of an offensive line would literally be a ginormous gift.
Personality wise, I don’t believe Sweat is at all like MacDowell, who may not have been the best teammate in college and didn’t seem to take to coaching very well. At Texas, while known as a fun loving guy, I think he was actually a pretty good teammate, and Brock Huard noted on his morning radio show the other day that he has a personality that you naturally gravitate towards.
Also, Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy (a dude very connected to Seattle) noted that Sweat demonstrated an ability during Senior Bowl practices to take to harder coaching. This last part makes me believe he is a fit for Mike Macdonald in Seattle. Not only is he physically the exact type of player they need at nose tackle, he is also the type of player who the coaches could be able to maximize with a harder no-nonsense brand of coaching that we are now likely to see.
At the end of the day, Macdonald is going to want talented players who are coachable, and Sweat checks off both boxes. If John Schneider takes him, he will feel the heat from some local media members for sure, but they can incentivize his rookie contract with performance and off field behavioral clauses (I believe they did this with Clark). In my opinion, I think it’s a very worthy roll of the dice for greatness.
Brandon Coleman is a guy that I have mocked in the third round to Seattle a couple times now. He was a good pass blocking left tackle in college who wis an explosive athletic tester, and he projects to slide into left guard at the next level.
Seattle is heavily connected to UW’s Troy Fautanu as a player people are projecting to Seattle at pick 16 as a tackle who could be converted to guard at the next level. It would be outstanding if Seattle were to draft him, but I kinda think Fauntanu is going to be well off the board by then.
Coleman could be a decent backup plan later on. He’s not the tenacious run blocker Fautanu is, but he could be potentially a very good pass blocking guard, and offensive line coach Scott Huff does have a history transitioning tackles to guards in college. Coleman was a team captain at TCU, and there is no reason to think that he can’t be coached up to become a more aggressive and effective run blocker. With veteran Laken Tomlinson brought in as a stop gap, this buys time for a talented guy like Coleman to ease into the transition. I really like him for Seattle.
Jeremiah Trotter Junior is another guy I have mocked to the Seahawks twice, and believe is the right character fit filling a need. He was a team leader at Clemson, started a ton of games, called the plays, showed well in coverage, and was a timely blitzer. His dad was a long time NFL linebacker, so you can feel confident he probably knows ball at a pretty high level. He’s not the biggest guy, and he doesn’t have blazing speed, but he’s probably fast enough. In the fourth round, I can see Seattle willing to take a shot on him.
Javon Solomon is a guy I am late on, but I think provides intriguing value in early day three of the draft. At 6-1 246 pounds, he is a compact edge rusher with long arms and some decent enough athletic testing numbers to make you think there is stuff to work with at the next level. Like Trotter, he was a highly productive college player who played with great instincts and he comes into the league already demonstrating a number of pass rush moves. He also plays the run really well. If Seattle wants to come out of this draft with another quality edge defender, he could be a player to keep in mind in the mid rounds.
Kamren Kinchens is just a really good football player at safety, and could see a big slide through the draft because he wasn’t a great athletic tester in gym shorts, and the safety position, as a whole, is becoming more devalued through the draft process. Like Trotter, and Solomon, he’s an instinctual player who plays with a good understanding of the game, and he was a team leader. I think he’s exactly the type of young safety Mike Macdonald might be looking for.
It would be stunning to me of Beaux Limmer lasted late into the sixth round of the draft, but every year that I watch this thing, I see good players still available well into the last stretches. He’s long and strong, and has plenty of experience at guard and center. I think he’s exactly what you are looking for in a backup player capable of filling in at both spots, and Seattle is going to need to step out of this draft with at least two offensive linemen. If they land Coleman and Limmer, I think we can call that a pretty successful haul for what they need on the interior of their offensive line.
Luke McCaffery is just a fun idea at wide receiver, and I would like to see Seattle take a shot at one in this draft class which is rich at the position. I wouldn’t mind it if they took a shot at him earlier than what I am projecting here. On top of showing traits that translate to the league, I think it’s a fun idea to draft Christian’s little brother to further stoke the flames of the Seattle San Francisco rivalry. How’s dad Ed McCaffery going to handle these two games out of the years on Sundays? 49er jersey and Seahawks cap? Fun stuff.
Final final thoughts on this coming draft
I know that I have come across as wanting Seattle to draft a quarterback this year, but I am fine with kicking that can down the line another year if the right player isn’t available. I can see the merit of going other positions and seeing what you might have with Sam Howell as a guy to further develop potentially as a long term starter.
That said, if by chance Michael Penix Junior is sitting at pick 16, and Seattle passes him over for another position, I will blow a gasket. I can take it if he is drafted in front of Seattle, and they punt on Bo Nix, if he is sitting there. For the many reasons I already described, I like Nix a lot, but I need Penix in Seattle, if that is possible.
In my opinion, Penix to Seattle feels like the most logical move to come out of this draft. A couple weeks ago, I did a mock article where Seattle traded up to the 10 spot to take him. They have his offensive coordinator here, and he would come in with A+ arm talent knowing this system perhaps better than Geno Smith and Sam Howell. If Seattle really does want him, I think they should do whatever to make sure he is a Seahawk, and that includes trading up. Just go get him.
On the contrary to this, if they pass an opportunity to draft Penix with him being available at 16, I will damn near lose my mind. If they pass on him, and he ends up being taken by the LA Rams, I will absolutely lose my marbles, you can bank of that.
If you are a fan of my more toxic side filtering out as a writer, the side that I demonstrated when the mediocre Pittsburgh Steelers came into Seattle late last season, and made Bobby Wagner their chew toy, you should root for the scenario of John Schneider passing on Penix and then seeing him drafted by the Rams at pick 19. I am praying that this does not happen. I don’t think it will. I suspect that he does not get past Denver, who is picking at 12, and there is buzz already that the Raiders are looking at him at 13, but none the less, Seattle passing on Penix is the one scenario that I don’t have the fortitude to handle. I cannot have that.
That said, I think it is about 60/40 whether they even take a quarterback at all this year. I think they are aiming for one. I suspect that they dig Penix for all the very obvious reasons. I also have a hunch that they are keen on Nix, and are possibly really into Spencer Rattler, as well. If they don’t land any of the top seven or eight guys, however, I kinda don’t think they will draft one this year, though. This is the reason they traded for Sam Howell. They can say he is a part of this class, and I believe that they really do like him.
I think that they are most definitely going to look to add to the trenches on both sides of the ball. I am not completely convinced that they go offensive line with their first pick, however, if it is not a quarterback. I think there is a strong chance they could take either the best defensive tackle, or edge rusher prospect on their board, and then look towards the offensive line further down the line.
Part of the reason why I think Seattle is eyeing pass rush in the first round is that Jim Nagy mentioned on Twitter X a while back that he didn’t believe Seattle would go offensive line with their first pick. I think it stands to reason that maybe he’s privy to things about Seattle that others are not. This is also partly why I think they might actually go quarterback round one like I am projecting in this final mock draft.
The other reason why I think Seattle might go pass rusher in round one is that it could ultimately make the most sense for their new head coach who was hired to finally build back an elite defense in Seattle (something Pete Carroll ultimately failed to do after the collapse of the LOB defense). Seattle might feel like their offense is close enough to completion that going defense is the bigger need, and they want to ensure a quick turnaround on that side of the ball in year one of Macdonald’s regime. This is why I had them stay put in last week’s mock draft article, selecting Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse.
Ultimately, staying put at 16 and taking a guy like Verse could be the most likely thing for Seattle in a few days. It could also be for Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, who is regarded as the best interior pass rusher in this class. If either one of these guys ends up a Seattle Seahawk this Thursday, you can get plenty excited about that.
I just can’t have them pass on Michael Penix Junior. The disappoint level of that would be equivalent to learning that my wife is a Russian spy. I can’t have that. Hopefully, I won’t.
When the Seattle Seahawks made the trade for Sam Howell a few weeks back, the assumption was that it took them out of the running of drafting a quarterback in round one. This very might well prove the case, but Seattle just had former Oregon Duck quarterback Bo Nix in for a visit over the weekend, and that presents an interesting question.
Seattle picks 16 overall in the NFL draft, and then they don’t pick again until 81. The golf between these two picks is gigantic. Therefore, if Nix slides to pick 16, and they don’t take him, he most certainly will not be available when Seattle picks at 81, assuming they don’t trade back for a second round pick (they might).
Nix is expected by many to be a first round pick, but is the league expecting a fall in the draft a la Will Levis from last year, and could Seattle be looking to land him later? Could he be a target at the bottom of round one, or in the second round after a series of trade backs?
It’s a curious visit. Many folks in amongst the 206 area code don’t appear super high on Nix after watching Michael Penix Junior and the Huskies defeat the Ducks three times in the last two years, but I dig him. I think he’s got great character, I am drawn to his ability to throw on the run, and be an athletic point guard distributor in football cleats. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but it appears big enough, and he’s accurate. I can see him being successful in a Kyle Shanahan styled offensive, and I can also see how a defensive minded head coach would appreciate his willingness to be judicious with the ball in his hands. With all the skill players Seattle has on offense, I think he could step in and find early success.
Therefore, in inspiration of all this Nix visiting the Seahawks news, I want to entertain the idea that they are still quite interested in going QB early, even though they traded for Howell. How realistic this is, I have no idea, but I think it’s interesting.
Right now, there are six quarterbacks who are thought to be likely first round picks in a couple weeks; Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy should all go pretty high, and then there’s Penix, and Nix. Some think the Spencer Rattler might develop into a decent NFL starter, but he isn’t projected to go first round. After Rattler, there isn’t much in this class in terms of developmental prospects. Therefore, if you want a starter type on a rookie contract, you’re likely going to have to spend a high pick.
From a Seattle perspective, the chances of one these top quarterbacks reaching pick 16 for them remains dicey, in my opinion. The Vikings, Raiders, Broncos all feel like they are gearing to take a quarterback early. The Falcons and Jets, with older quarterbacks, could also have interest. We know that the Bears, Commanders, Patriots, and perhaps even the Giants almost certainly are looking to select one of these dudes high.
That is nine teams in front of Seattle who could be enticed to take one of these six dudes. This is why Seattle made the Sam Howell trade. They wanted to get someone who has upside to be molded into an eventual starter, and Howell presented the easiest pathway with their lack of draft capital. For them, they liked Howell two years ago, he was on the market because Washington was picking second overall, and they were perfectly willing to outbid Denver and the LA Rams for his services.
In this mock draft article, however, I am going to proposal a hypothetical as to how Seattle might still get their guy, if they are very high on a particular fella. As I skim through the tea leaves, I can see a scenario that could happen.
Now I am now going to present a situation where Minnesota makes a trade with the Patriots to move all the way up to number three overall, and they take JJ McCarthy who they will have convinced themselves he’s got the intangibles to lead them to the promised land. This trade happens after the Bears took Caleb Williams, and the Commanders took Jayden Daniels.
The Patriots, hoping for Daniels, traded back once the Commies took him in front of them. This trade inspires the Raiders to trade with the Cardinals at pick 4, and they snag Drake Maye who they will have convinced themselves he’s the next Justin Herbert. Then from picks five through nine we see an expected run on offensive tackles and receivers. After that run, this following thing happens.
With the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the New York Jets Trade With the Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks deal pick 16 and their 2025 first round pick to move up six spots in order to get in front of the Patriots at pick 11 who are likely eyeing the same quarterback. The Jets, who have been a trade partner with Seattle in the past, accept the offer in order to prevent the talented passer to go to their division rival, and stock up first round picks in 2025 to perhaps go after their own QB of the future.
With the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Michael Penix Junior, Quarterback, Washington
Seattle gets the passer they wanted all along, a big armed, brilliant deep ball passer who they envision pairing with DK Metcalf for years to come. They hired his offensive coach, his offensive line coach, and they know exactly how to use him. They have a plan to protect him by leaning into a powerful run game more which will allow him to play in a more balanced attack than what he did in his Washington days. They knew they didn’t have shot at the top three, but they were hoping they would come within striking distance of Penix, and they got him.
With the 81st pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Brandon Coleman, Guard, TCU
Coleman was an athletic left tackle at TCU who projects as a guard in the NFL. Call him a poor man’s version of UW’s Troy Fautanu (who should go in the top 15 of this draft). Coleman has good pass blocking traits, comes with good football fundamentals, and has an explosiveness to develop into a quality run blocker. He should step into the left guard vacancy and compete to be a day one starter.
With the 102nd pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Jeremiah Trotter Junior, Linebacker, Clemson
Trotter has NFL DNA surging through his body, and is a smart, all out effort, middle linebacker. He’s not a big player but plays big. He’s considered not a great athlete, but is a very instinctive player against the run and in coverage. Middle linebacker is one position where instincts can often trump size and speed, and Lofa Tatupu had the same knocks against him coming out of USC in 2005 when Seattle took him in round two and it was considered a massive reach. I can see him being a Mike Macdonald guy.
With the 118th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Layden Robinson, Guard, Texas A&M
I had Seattle draft Robinson in the exact same spot in last week’s mock draft article after taking offensive line in round one, and I am going to continue projecting him at this spot this week. I think Seattle will most likely draft a couple offensive linemen even if they go a different position in round one. Robinson has the size, strength, and athletic traits to compete with Anthony Bradford at right guard.
With the 179th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Devin Culp, Tight End, Washington
Seattle stays patient and takes Penix’s athletic pass catching tight end here, and Culp comes in with an immediate understanding of Ryan Grubb’s scheme, and has instant chemistry with Penix. Smart pickup here.
With the 192nd pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Nathaniel Watson, Linebacker, Mississippi State
Seattle grabs another middle linebacker type with good athleticism and three years of experience starting. He showed good instincts in coverage in college, and traits to be a quality blitzer (which will be important to Macdonald). He has traits to be a starter in the league, but needs to learn proper discipline in order to achieve that status.
With the 235th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Kitan Oladapo, Safety, Oregon State
Oladapo is well sized to play strong safety in the league, and has shown a decent ability to play against tight ends. Seattle should do a lot of split safety stuff here, but he has enough traits to be able to develop that way. He’s a good athlete who should bring immediate special teams value and depth.
Thoughts about this mock draft
By mocking former Huskies to Seattle in back to back weeks in the first round, I understand it if readers feel I am the homeresty homer that ever homed the homestead, but I calls ’em as I sees them. I think Michael Penix Junior is special, and I see only two other QB prospects in this draft who I would describe as perhaps being more special (Williams and Daniels).
It is fine to be nervous about Michael Penix’s injury history, and question whether he can hold up long term in the NFL, but there is not a prettier deep ball passer in this draft, and John Schneider has a love for big armed quarterbacks, and Seattle has an offensive coordinator who knows him better than anyone else in the league. It is the easiest thing to project him to Seattle, even with the Sam Howell trade (who I believe Seattle is genuinely high on, as well).
What continues to baffle me about Penix is the view from some NFL and draft analysts who still believe he is a second round talent, even after his pro day where he ran a blistering 4.5 forty in front of scouts and jumped a ridiculously high vertical for a quarterback. The concern amongst most of his detractors is his substantial injury history even though his medicals have checked out positively, and some analytic data showing that he didn’t perform very well off script last year, but my goodness, do they not see how effortlessly he can rip difficult throws downfield on-script?
I say fooey to all of this. He was the best on-script passer in college football over the past two years, and with huge hands, he can spin the ball downfield like few quarterbacks can. Put him in an offense that allows him to perform on-script on Sundays, with a great offensive line, ground game, and defense, and go win a freaking championship with him.
Tom Brady, who many consider the GOAT quarterback, was not great off script, either. Neither was Payton Manning, Troy Aikman, and Dan Marino. They all succeeded by having unique abilities to kill defenses on schedule from the pocket.
Football is not as innovative as some fans like to think of it. All this chatter about how today’s game is more about needing to have quarterbacks who can throw off platform, and off-script outside of the pocket is baloney.
Nobody is going to call Brock Purdy a brilliant off schedule improvising quarterback. He’s very much tied to Kyle Shanahan’s detailed play calling, and he executes it brilliantly on schedule. If he makes a play outside of the realm of how it was designed, Kyle is famously willing to rip him a new one on the sidelines.
In Denver, Sean Payton also runs a very detail oriented on schedule scripted offense, and even though Russell Wilson was having a decent bounce back statistical season last year, he was absolutely driving the coach nuts with is unscripted style. It wouldn’t shock me if Penix is actually QB1 for Payton in this draft.
Penix has all the traits of a great on schedule quarterback. I think he’s a young Warren Moon and Troy Aikman. I feel it. I got nothing against Geno Smith, or Sam Howell, but I believe to my core that Penix will likely be a much better passer in this league. I feel it in my bones.
I could be wrong, sure. He could get drafted to a bad organization with bad coaching. He could have coordinators switched on him early, and never have enough time to master a system. He could get injured and never materialize to his potential. He could be Sam Darnold in four years.
He could also become a brilliant young Warren Moon-esque passer torching up the league with all kinds of pretty stats and pro bowl nods, and deep playoff runs. It is this vision of his future that makes me believe Seattle should just go out and get him.
Do I think it is likely that Seattle will trade up for him a few spots and take him within the top ten in front of other quarterback hungry teams? No, I think it is significantly more likely that they trade back for more picks and take an offensive lineman just as I had them do in last week’s mock draft article. Again, I will say it that I believe they like Sam Howell’s potential more than some realize, but in that, I cannot rule out the possibility of Seattle doing something they have never done before with John Schneider at the GM helm, if they dig on a guy in this draft even more, and move up to get him. It would not stun me.
If they believe that a guy like Penix is the dude who will quarterback them to titles, and he is within striking distance of a trade to move up for him, they could do it, absolutely, and they should. The question becomes whether they feel that way about him, and whether he is within reasonable striking distance to do this sort of trade.
Personally, I believe Penix is destined to be drafted much higher than where Seattle is slated to pick at 16. If I am proved to be wrong on this, I will be happy to own it, but I don’t think I will be. His arm talent is too special, as are his leadership traits. Those two factors alone will likely outweigh concerns about further injuries, in my opinion, and the Falcons who pick at eight overall just sent a massive delegation (including their head coach) to Seattle to work him out and interview him. Even though they just signed Kirk Cousins, it makes sense for them to draft Penix and have him waiting in the wings for a year or two.
If he should get past Atlanta, however, and make it to pick ten of the Jets, I think it would be worth it for Seattle to put in an offer to move up at that point. Sure, the Jets, themselves, could be inclined to take him there, but do they really want to piss off a moody Aaron Rodgers who they just traded for and made their bed with? Trading back with Seattle, and taking the best receiver or offensive linemen feels more prudent from their position, and they can explore quarterback options in 2025 with two first round picks at their disposal once again.
From a fan perspective, I think this sort of bold move for Penix would have the Twelves very split. Many people would dance in the streets, but others would throw their remotes at their television sets, especially those who believe Geno Smith is a perfectly fine quarterback for the now and in the future. I get that, but I reckon that there was a continent of Chief fans who believed Alex Smith was a perfectly fine quarterback, and they lamented the trade up for a raw Patrick Mahomes who had tons of question marks coming out of Texas Tech.
What would trading up for Penix mean for Geno? That’s where it gets murkier.
Penix would come into Seattle knowing Ryan Grubb exceptionally well. Seattle could look to trade or release Geno post June 1st to save some off of the cap, and allow him to select a quarterback needy-ish team of his choosing. However, if they wanted to stock up on further 2025 draft picks, Sam Howell, with his upside and two year left on a cheap rookie contract, might offer more trade value. If the Broncos miss out on a quarterback in the draft, for example, Howell to Denver doesn’t sound that crazy, and maybe Seattle sees value in keeping Geno for a final year to mentor in Penix like Kurt Warner did to Eli Manning with the Giants. I could see it going either way.
If Seattle should shock the world and trade up for Penix, but trading away next year’s first round pick, they could still target valuable offensive line prospects in the third and fourth rounds, and feel like they can get a couple starters. If Brandon Coleman ends up at pick 81, it makes all the sense in the world to snatch him up. He’s big and athletic with left tackle experience and a body made for an NFL guard. He could grow into one of the better interior pass blockers in the league and would come into Seattle with Scott Huff coaching him up.
Beyond pick 81, I just like Seattle drafting Steady Eddie types filling in needs. Under John Schneider, Seattle has historically done very well finding mid to late round starters who are just good football players if not great workout warriors. KJ Wright and Will Dissly didn’t blow anyone away at the NFL combine. Their tape was just really good and Seattle recognized that. Go get guys who played well in college to fill in depth needs.
Jeremiah Trotter Junior is perhaps a bit of a limited athlete but he’s a smart player who plays instinctively well. Layden Robinson should be a guy you take in the middle rounds with the expectation he can develop into a decent NFL guard. Devin Culp offers skills for move tight ends that play like big slot receivers who you see a lot of on Sunday. Nathaniel Watson might likely get drafted a lot higher than the sixth round, but if he’s there, he’s the sort you happily pickup. Go draft another safety, at some point to throw in the mix, like Olapado.
In conclusion, while I don’t think this mock draft scenario is very likely for Seattle, it is the scenario that I most want them to do in a few weeks. If they love one of these quarterbacks, and they believe they could have a shot at him, just go get him, if you can.
This feels like a draft that is a rare top heavy one at quarterback. The drop off beyond the top six or seven is steep. In fact, next year’s draft class might be better for day two QB prospects who could be viewed as future starters.
Finally, I will say this. if Seattle traded up for Penix, I will absolutely lose my freaking mind with excitement. My neighbor might feel inclined to call 911 because of the lunatic next door.
He is the dude I have most wanted to see in a Seahawk uniform for many months now. If this happens in two weeks, I will absolutely lose my shit, and I am not really that much of a quarterback obsessed fan. I have always been a trenches guy, and have been lamenting for years how much Seattle has not emphasized, nearly enough, offensive and defensive linemen. This is how much of a believer I am in Penix.
12th Life 